Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 at a Fork: Scale Back or Borrow More?
Saudi Arabia entered May 2026 with a first-quarter budget deficit of $33.5 billion, more than double the shortfall recorded in the same period a year earlier. The Strait of Hormuz closure has cut oil revenues while government spending rises. Riyadh is now choosing between scaling back its Vision 2030 megaprojects or deepening its position in international debt markets. This analysis examines the fiscal data, the specific project decisions underway at NEOM and the Public Investment Fund, and the contrasting positions of Oman, the UAE, Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait in the same shock.
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